Let’s cut to the chase: Glassnode thinks we’re in a bear market. In their latest “The Week On-Chain” newsletter, the company tries to “establish the likelihood that a prolonged bear market is in play” by “using historical investor behaviour, and profitability patterns as our guide.” One thing’s for sure, the recent crash was severe, and “such a heavy drawdown is likely to change investor perceptions and sentiment at a macro scale.” Related Reading | Bitcoin Leads As Markets Sees Record Outflows. Bear Market Incoming? How severe was it? According to Glassnode, “this is now the second worst sell-off since the 2018-20 bear market, eclipsed only by July 2021, where the market fell -54% from the highs set in April.” Apart from the price, investors “capitulated over $2.5 Billion in net realised value on-chain this week.” Who were those paper hand investors? “The lion’s share of these losses are attributed to Short-Term Holders.” Of course. Glassnode Points Out The Bear Market Indicators The first indicator Glassnode goes for is “The Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric.” Which measures “the overall market profitability as a proportion of market cap.” How is Bitcoin doing on that front? “NUPL is currently trading at 0.325 which indicates that an equivalent to 32.5% of the Bitcoin market cap is held as an unrealised profit.” BTC Price Drawdown from ATH | Source: Glassnode How does this point to a bear market? “Cons...
